Brazilian Journal of Anesthesiology
https://bjan-sba.org/article/doi/10.1016/j.bjane.2018.12.009
Brazilian Journal of Anesthesiology
Scientific Article

Validation of APACHE IV score in postoperative liver transplantation in southern Brazil: a cohort study

Validação do escore APACHE IV no transplante hepático pós-operatório no sul do Brasil: estudo de coorte

Edison Moraes Rodrigues Filho; Anderson Garcez; Wagner Luis Nedel

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bjane.2018.12.009 Braz J Anesthesiol, vol.69, n3, p.279-283, 2019
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Abstract

Abstract Background: Liver transplantation is the only curative therapeutic modality available for individuals at end-stage liver disease. There is no reliable method of predicting the early postoperative outcome of these patients. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a widely used model for predicting hospital survival and benchmarking in critically ill patients. This study evaluated the calibration and discrimination of APACHE IV in the postoperative period of elective liver transplantation in the southern Brazil. Methods: This was a clinical prospective and unicentric cohort study that included 371 adult patients in the immediate postoperative period of elective liver transplantation from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016. Results: In this study, liver transplant patients who evolved to hospital death had a significantly higher APACHE IV score (82.7 ± 5.1 vs. 51.0 ± 15.8; p < 0.001) and higher predicted mortality (6.5% [4.4-20.2%] vs. 2.3% [1.4-3.5%]; p < 0.001). The APACHE IV score showed an adequate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow - H-L = 11.37; p = 0.181) and good discrimination (Receiver Operator Curve - ROC of 0.797; Confidence Interval 95% - 95% CI 0.713-0.881; p < 0.0001), although Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR = 2.63), (95% CI 1.66-4.27; p < 0.001) underestimate mortality. Conclusions: In summary, the APACHE IV score showed an acceptable performance for predicting a hospital outcome in the postoperative period of elective liver transplant recipients.

Keywords

Liver transplantation, APACHE IV, Validation

Resumo

Resumo Introdução: O transplante de fígado é a única modalidade terapêutica curativa disponível para indivíduos com doença hepática terminal. Não há método confiável de prever o resultado pós-operatório imediato desses pacientes. A Avaliação da Gravidade da Doença Crônica e Aguda com bases Fisiológicas (APACHE) é um modelo amplamente usado para prever a sobrevida hospitalar e fazer a avaliação comparativa de pacientes criticamente enfermos. Este estudo avaliou a calibração e discriminação do APACHE IV no pós-operatório de transplante hepático eletivo no sul do Brasil. Métodos: Estudo clínico prospectivo de coorte em centro único que incluiu 371 pacientes adultos no pós-operatório imediato de transplante hepático eletivo de 1 de janeiro de 2012 a 31 de dezembro de 2016. Resultados: Neste estudo, pacientes com transplante hepático que evoluíram para óbito hospitalar obtiveram escore APACHE IV significativamente maior (82,7 ± 5,1 vs. 51,0 ± 15,8; p < 0,001) e mortalidade prevista mais alta (6,5% [4,4% -20,2%] vs 2,3% [1,4% -3,5%], p < 0,001). O escore APACHE IV mostrou uma calibração adequada (Hosmer-Lemeshow - H-L = 11,37; p = 0,181) e boa discriminação (Receiver Operator Curve - ROC de 0,797; intervalo de confiança de 95% - IC 95% 0,713-0,881; p < 0,0001), embora a taxa de mortalidade padronizada (Standardized Mortality Ratio - SMR = 2,63), (IC 95% 1,66-4,27; p < 0,001) subestime a mortalidade. Conclusões: Em resumo, o escore APACHE IV mostrou um desempenho aceitável para predizer um desfecho hospitalar no período pós-operatório de receptores eletivos de transplante hepático.

Palavras-chave

Transplante hepático, APACHE IV, Validação

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